In this week’s Bowman Beat, we look at the Dream’s last game against Chicago, we compare Atlanta with how they were at this point last season, and watch teams plummet in the WNBA Power Rankings.

Let’s start with a review of last week’s games.

Chicago Sky 97, Atlanta Dream 92

1. Atlanta kept this game close throughout. The Dream shot 52.1 percent for the game, their best shooting performance all season.
2. Atlanta made another roster change. They decided to start Roneeka Hodges at forward in place of Cierra Burdick.
3. Dream forward Angel McCoughtry shoved Chicago Sky forward Betnijah Laney in the first quarter and earned a Flagrant 1 foul. It is a serious foul, but you need to pick up a few of these types of fouls to be in danger of suspension.
4. Atlanta played a lot more physical than we’ve seen it play before. Guard Matee Ajavon would come off the bench and have a big first quarter (she’d lead the team with 21 points). McCoughtry and Sky forward Elena Delle Donne would combine for one (1) first-quarter point.
5. The second quarter wouldn’t be so good for McCoughtry. She picked up three personal fouls to bring her total to the half to four (but then again, she had the task of guarding Delle Donne). Atlanta gained the second quarter lead helped by nine points from Dream guard Tiffany Hayes. On the other bench, guard Allie Quigley scored 13 second-quarter points, scoring nine straight at one time.
6. Atlanta led 48-44 at halftime. The 48-halftime points by Atlanta tied the most points scored in a half with season, when it scored 48 in the first half during the loss to Phoenix.
7. Generally, coming out flat in the third quarter costs the Dream the lead, but this time, it was foul trouble. Up 52-48, Hayes picked up her second foul in the third quarter with 7:13 to go to bring her game total to five fouls.   With 3:13 to go in the quarter, McCoughtry would pick up her fifth foul.

Not having McCoughtry and Hayes on the floor allowed Chicago to take the upper hand. At the end of the third quarter they held on to a 67-62 lead over the Dream.

8. Both teams tried to shoot the other team off the court in the fourth quarter. Each team shot over 60 percent during the quarter in a game of endurance. Hayes closed the gap to three points, 73-70, with 6:25 left but would shortly thereafter pick up her sixth foul for the game, fouling out.

McCoughtry would pick up nine points in the fourth quarter. Delle Donne would pick up 10.

9. Out of Delle Donne’s 27 points, 21 were scored in the second half.
10. The Dream fall to 0-8 on the season when the opposing team scores more than 80 points. When the opposing team is held to under 80, the Dream is 7-2.

Pokey Chatman on the Sky defense: “We got a lot of deflections that quarter. Tamera Young keeps those deflections and it’s hard to believe but we actually had 38 for the game, the most we’ve had all year. The guards started putting a lot of pressure on the perimeter so the entry passes weren’t as easy. We were collapsing, sinking and helping –the dirty work that doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet.”

Michael Cooper on the Dream’s foul trouble: “We had two of our best players in foul trouble with Tiffany Hayes and Angel McCoughtry. It’s hard to play when you have your hands handcuffed a little bit. I think we were being a little too aggressive and not sticking to our defensive discipline.”

All Star Game: West 117, East 112

The Dream had two players represented on the East roster in the WNBA’s premiere Sunday exhibition. Angel McCoughtry scored nine points as one of the Dream’s two starters for the East. The other starter, Shoni Schimmel, had 13 points and 6 assists for the East during their loss to the West.

Midseason Assessment

We’re going to take a brief diversion to look at the Atlanta Dream this season as compared to the Dream last season. Which Dream players are having great seasons compared to last year, and which Dream players need some work?

Next to each player, we’ll write a line of statistics. The numbers next to 2014 are the player’s average points, rebounds and assists after the first 17 games of the 2014 season. The numbers next to 2015 are the player averages from the first 17 games of the 2015 season.

Angel McCoughtry: 2014 – 19.6/5.4/4.2 , 2015 – 20.5/5.9/3.5

McCoughtry’s performance doesn’t look very much different comparing the basic stats. But her shooting percentage comparing time frames is down from 41.4 percent to 37.7 percent. If she shot as well this year as last year, she’d be scoring 24.1 points per game! Her shots taken are more or less comparable, about +1 this half compared to last season. We’ve seen some ugly 3-for-20 and 5-for-20 games this season, and it could be that McCoughtry’s just putting too much pressure on herself.

Sancho Lyttle: 2014 – 11.9/8.9/2.3 , 2015 – 10.3/8.5/1.9

Lyttle’s numbers are comparable to last season’s after 17 games. Unfortunately, Lyttle actually played all 17 games of the first half last season, but this season she’s only played 12 games and with the plantar fascia tear. The good news is that it should not require any surgery. The bad news is that it might be weeks before she’s even 80 percent effective and there doesn’t seem to be anyone who can make up those 10.3 points/8.5 rebounds that she provides.

Tiffany Hayes: 2014 – 10.9/2.9/2.3 , 2015 – 12.3/3.0/1.9

Those stats above are misleading. Hayes had a weak first half last season, and actually finished with 12.9 points per game, so her scoring numbers are down. She’s taking about two more 3-point attempts per game…but she’s not hitting them. Last year she shot 48.1 percent at the half; this year it’s down to 35.1 percent. Part of that could be attributed to the fact she’s still trying to readjust to the WNBA game after her visit to Azerbaijan.

In the last couple of games, foul trouble has been a big problem for her. She’s also turning the ball over a lot more, 2.4 TO per game compared to 1.2 after 17 games last season. Her Usage stat – a stat that estimates the percentage of team plays she uses when she’s on the floor – has gone up from 18.3 percent in 2014 to 22.2 so far this season. I don’t know if it’s a case of increased pressure to score or a case of simply being given more to do but not doing it very well.

Matee Ajavon: 2014 – 1.6/0.6/0.4 , 2015 – 6.0/2.6/2.3

Ajavon was hurt last year and it looks like the injuries that hampered her last season don’t affect her now. Dream fans have been hard on Ajavon, but you might be surprised that this is one of her better seasons in the league. (Did you know that Ajavon is sixth in steals in the league this year? Me neither.)

Ajavon got shoved into the role of point guard by default and has done the best she could with it.   No, she’s not Lindsey Whalen but whatever the faults of the Dream, they can’t be laid on Ajavon.

Shoni Schimmel: 2014- 8.1/1.9/3.9 , 2015 – 5.0/1.8/2.3

Schimmel, on the other hand…well, she showed up to camp out of shape and then lost her starting spot at point guard (that first game against the Liberty didn’t help) and since then, she’s been struggling to lose the weight and become the Schimmel of last season. Her turnover percentage has jumped from 22.3 over the entire 2014 season to 30.6 and she’s declined in most of the important basketball metrics. Cooper took Schimmel off the floor because she was a liability, and he was right.

There will be a very vocal segment of fandom that will overlook any of Schimmel’s faults.   I can’t, and it’s not because I dislike Schimmel but because I want her to prove that she can recover her old form and be a part of the Dream for a long, long time.

Aneika Henry: 2014 – 4.3/2.9/0.4 , 2015 – 6.2/3.3/0.4

One bright light this year is Aneika Henry, who is shooting 64.7 percent over the 12 games she’s played. I don’t know if I’d really give her more minutes, given that she’s doing so well in her present role. I’m tempted to leave well enough alone.

Everybody else

The players from the 2014 season have played 2,546 out of the 3,426 minutes played in the 2015 season. That’s 74.3 percent of team minutes determined by last year’s players. I’ve only started to look at historical roster consistency, but 2015 is pretty much the definition of a “reloading” year and not a “rebuilding” one.

Unfortunately, things didn’t work out well. Atlanta’s point guard position was hit particularly hard. Dream first-round draft pick Samantha Logic really didn’t fit into Coop’s vision and was traded to San Antonio. Erika Wheeler, one of Atlanta’s point-guards-by-committee, was recently waived. Celine Dumerc decided to stay in France for 2015. Instead of having an embarrassment of riches at point guard, the Dream have been inconsistent.

However, we did get Cierra Burdick after the Sparks cut her. She’s the kind of player that will give you about eight points and six rebounds per game. She does provide a lot of effort and defensive hustle and she’s good to have on the bench. Unfortunately she was recently diagnosed with a foot injury and her status for the remainder of the season is questionable.

Conclusions

The reasons the Dream are struggling come down either to players performing beyond what their roles really demand (McCoughtry, Hayes), injuries (Lyttle), off-the-court issues (Schimmel’s condtioning, Dumerc not returning) or perhaps just general decline (de Souza – who was recently traded).

But there are some bright spots in the cloud. The Dream have won five close games – all of Atlanta’s wins have been close calls, which means that the team is still responding to coaching and can put things together down the stretch of games.

However, the Dream has zero “domination wins” this year. A domination win is a win by nine points or more against a team with a .500 or greater record. Domination wins contribute to success in basketball, and the only two other teams with no other domination wins are Seattle and Los Angeles (even San Antonio has a domination win).   That’s not a very good sign. Chicago and Washington each have four domination wins already, leading the league.

So what does the Dream have to do?

• McCoughtry (and Hayes to a lesser extent) need to dial it back a little bit. That will be hard to do for McCoughtry.
• Lyttle needs to be given full time to heal, even if the rest of the 2015 season is written off.
• Schimmel needs to be monitored much more closely in the off-season. Frankly, I’d suggest routine weigh-ins if she isn’t playing overseas. She can’t be allowed to come back to the team in 2016 in the same shape she was in at the beginning of 2015.
• We clearly need better options at point guard for next year. Ariel Massengale, our third round draft pick, will be finally healthy enough in 2016 to show up at camp. But you don’t bet the franchise on third-rounders. Get a commitment from Dumerc by December, or write her off.

Is that enough? Who knows? I was the guy who thought that Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis would be “all that” this season. Interpreting teams is much more of an art form that it is a science. Let’s hope that Michael Cooper and Angela Taylor are hard at work in the laboratory and that the Dream makes the playoffs in 2015.

And now a look at the Dream games for the upcoming week:

July 29: Atlanta Dream @ San Antonio Stars, 8 p.m. ET

(Atlanta leads 1-0)

One of the good things about being on the western road swing – the worst teams in the West are pretty bad and San Antonio is one of those teams. The Dream was able to duck having to play Los Angeles in L.A. with Candace Parker back on the roster, but San Antonio will provide a tougher challenge.

First, they’re almost a .500 team at home – they’re 5-3 at Freeman Coliseum. Second, the Dream has never played there before.   Third, we only beat San Antonio by four points when we played them at home in the first of two regular season games this year.   Fourth, they recently clobbered Indiana, which is on paper a better team. Fifth, guard Kayla McBride scored 18 points off the bench for the West team during the All-Star Game and point guard Danielle Robinson had seven assists. Sixth, San Antonio probably sees this as a winnable game. It’s time for Atlanta to shoot it out in San Antonio.

July 31: Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx, 8 p.m. ET

The first of two games against Atlanta’s bete noire from the West takes place in Minnesota, and this is going to be a tough hill to climb, even with Seimone Augustus out for the season and Lindsay Whalen’s eye injury. Minnesota isn’t the kind of team that likes to depend on one player, but that one player is 26-year old forward Maya Moore, who has a good argument for being considered the best player in women’s basketball. Moore is one of those players like McCoughtry that has that elusive “overdrive” gear and she scored 30 points and won the All-Star MVP in the West’s win.

This is a team that has no mercy for anyone – they lead the WNBA in “stomp wins”, which are wins by nine or more over teams with records under .500. Atlanta will have to keep this one close to have a chance to win as the Lynx have only played two games this year where the margin of victory was five points or less (they’re 1-1 in such games while Atlanta is 5-3).

August 2: Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream, 3 p.m. ET (SportSouth, Fox Arizona)

(Phoenix leads 1-0)

Atlanta finally gets a chance to come back home – briefly – in a swing where the Dream play eight out of nine on the road. This is that lone home game, where defending WNBA champs Phoenix will play their only game in Atlanta this season. If you can’t come to Philips Arena (and you should come, how many chances do you have to see Griner live), watch the game on SportSouth.

Even though Diana Taurasi has sat out the season, it means that the Dream will be face to face with Brittney Griner…a player who changes games just by standing on the court. There are some bright spots for Atlanta, namely that despite the presence of Griner the Mercury haven’t been a good offensive rebounding team. We’ll need every second chance point we can get, so Erika de Souza, Aneika Henry and Cierra Burdick will have to put in a hard day’s work to get the Dream their victory.

 

WNBA Power Rankings

1. Minnesota Lynx (12-4): Given the injuries to Seimone Augustus and Lindsey Whalen, it will be interesting to see if their lead remains as dominating in the second half.
2. Chicago Sky (11-6): Courtney Vandersloot was the most important player in the Sky’s win over the Dream last week.
3. New York Liberty (12-5): Having won eight of the last nine, I think they’ve quelled all doubts as to whether they deserve to be ranked this high.
4. Phoenix Mercury (9-7): They have slipped a little bit, losing two in a row, but one of those losses was to the red-hot Liberty.
5. Washington Mystics (9-6): They’re ninth overall in field goal percentage and 11^th overall in rebounding, but first overall in fewest turnovers. Credit Coach Thibault for that.
6. Connecticut Sun (8-7): Sun finally break a six-game losing skid. They’ve had to play a brutal schedule – mostly away, with two games each against the Sky and Lynx.
7. Indiana Fever (8-8):   That loss to San Antonio was flat-out inexcusable.
8. Tulsa Shock (10-8): They’re falling right out of the firmament, and given how they’re playing, will they disappoint Tulsa one final time before moving to Dallas next season?
9. Atlanta Dream (7-10): The last time the Dream had a won-loss record like this it was 2009. That team turned it around in the second half to get beaten in the first round by Detroit.
10. San Antonio Stars (5-12): Stars are starting to creep up the charts. They’re too close to Atlanta for me to feel comfortable.
11. Los Angeles Sparks (3-12): Candace Parker is supposed to return to the Sparks the first game after the All-Star Break. Given the state of the West, there’s still hope that the Sparks could go to the playoffs.
12. Seattle Storm (5-13): Two number one picks in a row?