In his latest column, blogger James Bowman looks forward to the upcoming WNBA season and offers his own perspective on how the season might unfold.
by James Bowman, AtlantaDream.net
Now that the Atlanta Dream has its pre-season games under its belt, Dream fans can start looking forward to the upcoming season. The Dream brings back its core and is likely to finish high in the Eastern Conference, but what about the other 11 WNBA teams? Who are the contenders and who are the pretenders?
Making predictions about a WNBA season is a dangerous game, particularly in the Eastern Conference. Not only do you have to think about last year’s talent, there are lots of variables that enter into play – injuries, new coaches and 2015 draft picks. Eurobasket in June will take a lot of players away from their rosters as American players who hold double-nationalities (it’s a long story) leave their American teams to help their European national teams qualify for the Olympic Games.
The WNBA season might not turn out as described below, but it’s fun to make guesses. The “possible starters” are at best only guesses and the draft picks listed are the once that haven’t been cut (yet) as of this writing. Let’s take a look into a cloudy crystal ball.
Eastern Conference
- Atlanta Dream
Possible starters: C Erika de Souza, F Sancho Lyttle, F Angel McCoughtry, G Tiffany Hayes, PG Shoni Schimmel.
Draft picks: PG Samantha Logic
The way it looks in the East, the Dream is the clear favorite to win the conference. There’s not even a good challenger in the East. Shoni Schimmel will have to prove that she’s the point guard of the future with Samantha Logic in camp – each brings a different set of skills to the table which will give head coach Michael Cooper the kind of flexibility at the position that he had last season. G Matee Ajavon, impaired last season with a neck injury, needs to show what she can do when healthy. F DeLisha Milton-Jones – the oldest active player in the WNBA – needs to be able to turn the clock back about three seasons, but Dream fans hope there’s more left in the tank.
- Washington Mystics
Possible starters: C Kia Vaughn, F Emma Meesseman, F Armintie Herrington, G Kara Lawson, PG Ivory Latta
Draft picks: F Ally Mallot, G Natasha Cloud, C Mrica Gajic
Increment by increment, Washington head coach Mike Thibault has been working to rebuild the Mystics, and he continues to add magic to the team with Herrington on the squad this season (it makes you wonder why the Sparks waived her). With Fowles likely not to return to Chicago the Mystics can slide into the #2 spot in the East. C Stefanie Dolson will have room to get even better but G Bria Hartley’s shooting percentage will have to improve if she wants to see any time at starter.
- Indiana Fever
Possible starters: C Erlana Larkins, F Tamika Catchings, F Marissa Coleman, G Shavonte Zellous, PG Briann January
Draft picks: F Natalie Achonwa (2014)
Tamika Catchings has announced that she’ll be retiring at the end of the 2016 season, and the push is on to get another championship for Catch. New head coach Stephanie White has the advantage of not needing to change the starting rotation much (except for Zellous leaving for Eurobasket in June), but there are always pains when new coaches take over, and former head coach Lin Dunn will be missed. A big key to Indiana’s success in 2015 will be how Natalie Achonwa performs – Indiana has waited a year for her and hopes their waiting will pay off.
- Chicago Sky
Possible starters: C Markeisha Gatling, F Elena Delle Donne, F Jessica Breland, G Cappie Pondexter, PG Courtney Vandersloot
Draft picks: C Cheyenne Parker, F Betnijah Lacey
Don’t pencil Markeisha Gatling in as center – the Sky’s starting center on opening day could turn out to be anyone, including first round draft pick Cheyenne Parker. But it’s looking more and more like that roster won’t include Sylvia Fowles, who is demanding a trade. Without Fowles, Chicago will struggle to make it out of (and into) the first round of the playoffs unless Cappie Pondexter finds the offensive touch that went missing after the 2012 season. This could all change tomorrow if the Sky front office can swing a deal with the front office of whatever team is Fowles’s preferred destination, but there are few players that can do what Fowles can do and getting equal value will be rough going. Given Elena Delle Donne’s health issues last year, she’ll need to stay healthy the entire year – else, Chicago will be looking to the lottery for help in 2016.
- New York Liberty
Possible starters: P Tina Charles, P Kiah Stokes, F Essence Carson, G Epiphanny Prince, PG Tanisha Wright
Draft picks: PG Brittany Boyd, C Kiah Stokes
New York head coach Bill Laimbeer might be one of the few people happy about Isiah Thomas being named as president of the Liberty, because the attention that Thomas is drawing takes attention away from the product on the floor. It’s looking like a pretty weak squad, and made even weaker with Epiphanny Prince leaving the team in June to help her Russian squad in Eurobasket. What Laimbeer needs to hope for is that his draft choices have breakout seasons – because if they don’t, it will be the third straight year that the Liberty have finished out of the playoffs.
- Connecticut Sun
Possible starters: C Kelsey Bone, F Alyssa Thomas, F Camille Little, G Jasmine Thomas, PG Alex Bentley
Draft picks: C Elizabeth Williams
The Sun seems to be laboring under a curse. C Tina Charles decides she wants to go to New York. G Kara Lawson leaves the team. F Chiney Ogwumike suffers a fracture in her knee that knocks her out for at least six months and possibly for all of 2015. F Katie Douglas retires. C Asjha Jones doesn’t want to come to the Sun and ends up in Seattle. G Allison Hightower has a hurt knee. F Kelsey Griffin has orthoscopic hip surgery that could sideline her for the entire season.
With so many new players on the roster, there’s no reason not to give minutes to Williams. But Jim Fuller of the New Haven Register has already counted out the Sun for this season, and the only player on this team that was a member of the squad before 2014 was G Kelly Faris. Connecticut head coach Anne Donovan’s contract runs out this season; it probably won’t be renewed if the Sun misses the playoffs.
Western Conference
- Minnesota Lynx
Possible starters: C Asjha Jones, F Rebekah Brunson, F Seimone Augustus, G Maya Moore, PG Lindsay Whalen
Draft picks: F Reshanda Gray, F Shae Kelley
One of the running plot threads in the Western Conference will be who finishes first – Phoenix or Minnesota? Minnesota was hurt early last season, and those injuries allowed Phoenix to take first place and the conference title. A healthy Lynx will be tougher.
Lindsay Whalen and Maya Moore make this team a contender no matter the cast, but three players – Whalen, Augustus, and Brunson – are all in their 30s and coach Cheryl Reeve is aware that the clock is ticking. C Janel McCarville told Minnesota that she wouldn’t be playing this year, with no explanation given, so it’s likely that either Jones or F Damiras Dantas will get the start at center.
- Phoenix Mercury
Possible starters: C Brittney Griner, F DeWanna Bonner, F Candice Dupree, G Monique Currie, PG Leilani Mitchell
Draft picks: F Isabelle Harrison (injured), G Alex Harden, F Zofia Hruskacova
With C Brittney Griner suspended for seven games for domestic violence and G Diana Taurasi skipping the season at the request of her Russian team in exchange for big bucks, Phoenix fans are putting on their hair shirts. But save your sympathy for other teams, this is still a high octane team even without Diana Taurasi or G Erin Phillips. It will be interesting to see how new acquisition G Marta Xargay from Spain fits into head coach Sandy Brondello’s plans for a title repeat. Given Griner’s suspension, that should be enough for the Lynx to snag the regular season title, but the playoffs might be a different story. The Mercury should be good enough for second even if F Penny Taylor decides not to play this season, which looks more and more likely.
- San Antonio Stars
Possible starters: C Jayne Appel, F Sophia Young-Malcolm, F Kayla McBride, G Jia Perkins, PG Danielle Robinson
Draft picks: F Dearica Hamby, G Brittany Hrynko (2015 Atlanta draft pick, obtained via waiver)
Albert Lee of Swish Appeal has something he calls the “treadmill to mediocrity” – not bad enough to get a high-ranking draft pick, not good enough to really contend. The Stars haven’t made much noise in the off-season and probably won’t make much noise in the regular season. Head coach Dan Hughes signed a multi-year contract extension (along with Danielle Robinson), but you have to wonder what kind of moves that Hughes could make to get them off that treadmill. They’re probably good enough to jog to a playoff spot in 2015.
- Tulsa Shock
Possible starters: C Courtney Paris, F Glory Johnson-Griner, F Karima Christmas, G Odyssey Sims, PG Skylar Diggins
Draft picks: C Amanda Zahui B., PG Brianna Kiesel
Tulsa going to the playoffs? After five seasons of very bad basketball, 2015 might be the year that Tulsa finally turns it around. Lightning struck when Amanda Zahui B. and G Jewell Loyd declared for the 2015 Draft, allowing Tulsa to pick up a higher quality draft choice than it would have gotten otherwise. Hopefully by the time this goes to print Glory Johnson-Griner will be in training camp, but trust me, Amanda Zahui B. will get lots of minutes regardless of whether or not Johnson-Griner shows up.
For years, Tulsa has been a place free agents have ducked. If Tulsa makes the playoffs, the payoff for the Shock won’t be just a change in wins-losses. It will be a change in ambiance.
- Los Angeles Sparks
Possible starters: C Jantel Lavender, F Nneka Ogwumike, F Alana Beard, G Kristi Toliver, PG Erin Phillips
Draft picks: G Crystal Bradford, F Cierra Burdick, C Jennifer Hamson (2014), G Andrea Hoover
Who will start for the Los Angeles Sparks in 2015? Your guess is as good as mine. New head coach Brian Agler faces a host of problems looking for solutions – C Candace Parker is sitting out half a season to heal herself, PG Kristi Toliver is spending time out for Eurobasket and there are three new acquisitions (Erin Phillips, G Temeka Johnson and F Jennifer Lacy) that need to fit into Agler’s rotation. My suspicion: by the time it’s figured out, the Sparks will finish out of the playoffs, Parker or no Parker.
- Seattle Storm
Possible starters: P Quanitra Hollingsworth, P Crystal Langhorne, F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, G Jewell Loyd, PG Sue Bird
Draft picks: G Jewell Loyd, G Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, C Vicky McIntyre.
You’ve heard the phrase, “Team X doesn’t rebuild, it reloads.” It looks like next year the Storm will do both at the same time, as it’s going to be a rebuilding year that might end with Seattle reloading with another top-level draft pick. New head coach Jenny Boucek marks the end of the Brian Agler era and probably the end of the Lauren Jackson era, as Jackson is having yet another surgery – have we seen the last of Jackson in the WNBA?
Will Jewell Loyd and Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis make Seattle fans forget Lauren Jackson? I don’t know, but I suspect they’ll get a lot of minutes. Watching them might be the only thing Storm fans have to look forward to this season.